Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 23.864554 26.030365 28.380409 31.133167 34.286395 37.806130 42.061159
2025-11-16 20.554161 23.508246 26.946170 31.295725 36.729749 43.403210 52.395965
2025-11-23 18.178533 21.548636 25.688014 31.258928 38.744859 48.747974 63.675985
2025-11-30 16.384482 19.973772 24.575612 31.091814 40.410144 53.837147 75.905718
2025-12-07 15.072685 18.807696 23.772664 31.119505 42.227524 59.399187 90.436523
2025-12-14 13.968316 17.768133 22.974062 30.972949 43.674464 64.611751 106.080910
2025-12-21 13.415130 17.404782 23.044756 32.063668 47.172006 73.956662 133.155888
2025-12-28 12.568363 16.537316 22.275948 31.725600 48.206299 79.130682 153.949356
2026-01-04 11.912037 15.882247 21.746472 31.679084 49.702011 85.524514 180.982824
2026-01-11 11.422862 15.428623 21.471359 32.000111 51.897000 93.931420 218.750497
2026-01-18 10.861686 14.821403 20.895526 31.723169 52.880246 99.949415 253.976842
2026-01-25 10.386551 14.310906 20.427545 31.573553 54.079328 106.833935 298.322498
2026-02-01 9.962458 13.863450 20.044473 31.569606 55.667540 115.480714 360.456540
2026-02-08 9.542451 13.396908 19.594866 31.395043 56.876783 123.666380 432.992226
2026-02-15 9.156666 12.961238 19.163692 31.207102 58.031986 132.232768 523.670631
2026-02-22 8.796322 12.545018 18.734137 30.973411 59.043548 140.861064 635.392345
2026-03-01 8.501781 12.219056 18.437102 30.970890 60.623732 152.149591 802.296743
2026-03-08 8.206750 11.875409 18.083381 30.811936 61.785243 162.636129 1007.223387
2026-03-15 8.108819 11.855128 18.307031 31.888132 66.432279 189.174309 1583.842704
2026-03-22 7.824484 11.502457 17.896742 31.549915 67.137736 200.082487 2046.172489
2026-03-29 7.597468 11.236818 17.630612 31.502515 68.679393 215.935711 2882.184779
2026-04-05 7.430578 11.066563 17.531725 31.820397 71.388025 239.713780 4711.868273
2026-04-12 7.202691 10.778701 17.190422 31.545429 72.230544 254.618091 7059.035637